Crypto Share of Search

A new indicator to optimize crypto portfolio growth.

In established markets the share of search indicator has proven itself to be of predictive value for the share of market of a brand or company. Using similar methods, this indicator has been applied to the crypto market with significant results.

In this post explains the workings and predictive value of crypto share of search indicator.  

Disclaimer: This post cannot be interpreted as financial advise. This post is for educational purposes only.

Summary

  1. What is the share of search?
  2. Application in the crypto market
  3. Data sources
  4. Results
  5. Business applications
  6. Limitations

1. What is the share of search?

The share of search metric compares the interest people have in a brand or company towards the interest they have in competitors using search engine data. This share of search indicator was researched and presented at Effworks by Les Binet, marketing academic and Group Head of Effectiveness, adam&eveDDB (source).

The crypto share of search is the application of the share of search indicator in the crypto market. In this application we model the relative share of search of a crypto project towards the relative share of market cap of the corresponding project. 

In sections below explain the origin of the share of search indicator and its significance for market share predictions.

1.1 Background

Les Binet was interested in a modern market indicator that explains share of market (SOM) growth besides the share of voice (SOV). The share of voice metric compares the share of marketing spend of competitors in a market and has been established as a valueable indicator for market share growth in multiple academic papers (Perry, C. L. (1998), Hansen, F., & Christensen, L. B. (2005)) Marketing academic Mark Ritson has a video explaining this predictive relation between SOV and SOM.

However in the digital age, determining the marketing spend of competitors has become increasingly difficult and therefore the share of voice indicator has become more unreliable for market researchers. It is for this reason the Share of Search (SOS) was developed and introduced by Les Binet.

1.2. Share of Search significant findings

Crypto share of search Les Binet Effworks

Les Binet uses Google Trends data to calculate the relative share of search of a brand in a market and modelled it towards the share of market of the corresponding brand. He researched brands in 3 markets: energy, automotive and mobile phone handsets. Here are some of his significant findings relevant for this post:

  • Share of Search correlates with market share in all three markets.
  • Share of Search (SOS) is a leading indicator / predictor of Share of Market (SOM) – when Share of Search goes up, Share of Market tends to go up and when Share of Search goes down, Share of Market falls. The gap between them – the Extra Share of Search (ESOS) – is a particularly solid indicator of market share movements.
  • The lead time for Share of Search on Share of Market can be substantial, up to a year for the car market.
  • Share of Search is not a perfect predictor though, as conversion is, of course, affected by other factors, particularly price. Equally, not all search activity is positive.
  • Share of Search could be a new measure for brand strength/health of their brand by measuring the base level of Share of Search without advertising.

These findings and more are stated in this article or watch his full presentation at Effworks on Youtube.

2. Application of SOS in the crypto market

The Share of Seach metric has proven its value in traditional markets, therefore it is time to research its value in the crypto market.

There crypto market lends itself perfectly for our application:

  • The crypto market is very emotion-driven. Fear, greed, panic and FOMO explain much of the crypto market’s behavior. This emotinoally behavior is often closely linked to search behavior
  • The crypto market is very fast-paced. This likely means shorter lead times between SOS and SOM and therefore many timeranges to research the possible relation between the two metrics.
  • The crypto market share data is publicly available. Compared to traditional markets, the crypto market is completely transparent when it comes to monitoring market share 

Limitations

There are, however, also some limitations, mainly due to Google Trends:

  • The Share of Search requires comparative data. Google Trends cannot compare crypto projects with too large discrepancies in search interest. Calculating the SOS of Bitcoin compared to top 2000 market cap coins would not make sense. We need to compare projects within range of each other. E.g. top 20 crypto coins can be compared based on search interest.
  • Google Trends retrieves search interest for provided search keywords. Therefore, if a crypto currency does not have a unique name, Google Trends could include other search interest data in the mix. This makes getting the real SOS of crypto projects like “Tron” and “THETA” very difficult.